The 2009-10 offseason has witnessed a sharp drop in transatlantic transfers, the IIHF reports.

As of 6 August 2009, only 22 European players have signed a contract with an NHL organization. That's a 46% decline compared with the same date last year.

The IIHF points to several possible reasons why there has been such a dramatic decline in transfers to North America this Summer:

• "Fewer European prospects. Sweden is the only European country right now that has a positive trend in producing talent. Russia and Finland have stalled, while the Czech Republic and Slovakia are in a substantial decline." 11 of the 22 Euro-NHL'ers are Swedes.
   
• Oversaturation. Were so many Europeans signed earlier that the cross-ocean traffic needs a break? Many of the Europeans signed in recent years proved to be not of NHL calibre or they were not NHL-ready. Signing Europeans for the affiliate AHL clubs makes little sense.
   
• Re-focus on development at home. An IIHF study a few years ago showed that European players develop better at home. Unless you have the skills of the Malkins or Ovechkins, the chance of making it directly the NHL as an 18- or 19-year-old are low. While the standard formula for NHL clubs is to send the players to their second-tier team in the AHL, experience shows that it makes more sense for Europeans to develop in a European top league until they are NHL-ready.
  
  Actually, there is evidence that NHL organizations, players and agents react to the reality as more and more prospects signed by NHL clubs stay with their European teams “on loan” until NHL maturity. Even though there were still eight U20 players signed, not all of them will play in North America. Andreas Engqvist and Philip Larsen have already been announced to stay with their Swedish teams in 2009-2010.
  
   
• Emerging KHL. The statistics show that there’s no doubt that the low numbers are also a consequence of the emerging Russian Kontinental Hockey League as no KHL player is among the 22 European rookies but 16 of the 25 transfers from the NHL to Europe are done by KHL clubs. The money invested by sponsors and regional governments make KHL clubs the richest in Europe and thus the most attractive for many players who are looking – or have to look – for opportunities outside of the NHL.
  
  The KHL’s rules for restricted free agents – which virtually bind the player to his club until he is 28 – is another factor.
   
• Lack of transfer agreement. It is very difficult to determine whether the absence of a transfer agreement plays any major role in the decline of European signings in the NHL. Superficially, it’s easy to point at this as a reason and many NHL club managers do. But fact is that basically every European player who is of NHL potential has an NHL out-clause or signs only one-year contracts with his European club, which means that the player is free to leave every summer if he gets an NHL offer.
  
  Without a transfer agreement, not only do the NHL clubs not have to pay the $200,000 per player, they can sign Europeans all year round. Under the old transfer agreement, basically no signings were possible after June 15."

On a further look, it is however questionable to what degree these factors have been responsible for the dramatic decline in transfers this Summer. if they had a real impact, we would have wirtnessed a trend-decline in transatlantic transfers.

However, as the IIHF article correctly notes, there was virtually no change in the number of no Euro-NHL contracts in 2008 compared with 2007 -- this despite the fact that the number of European players drafted by the NHL had declined, the NHL-IIHF agreement had expired and the KHL been formed. In effect, this leaves only one combined explanatory factor, namely oversatuation and re-focus on development at home. Though there have been some trends in this regard, it is unlikely that this factor alone has been responsible for the decline.

Another factor, not mentioned by the IIHF, is the slow transfer market in the wake of global the financial crisis. Both the NHL and virtually all European leagues have been strongly affected by the crisis. The European hockey clubs are strongly dependent on sponsors, and many clubs have lost sponsors and had difficulties finding new ones. This has led to a generel reduction of budgets all over Europe, in some cases dramatic reductions.

On this background it is not surprising that the number of former NHL'ers going to Europe has declined sharply as well, from 55 to 37, or 33%. This number is not significantly different from the decline in new NHL-Euro contracts. What is more, the vast majority of the NHL returnees have signed with the richest clubs in the KHL and Sweden, clubs which in general are not planning salary budget cuts for next season.

However, it is still a puzzle why there has been such a dramatic decline in the signings of new NHL-Euro  contracts. Though many NHL organizations have also been affected by the financial crisis, and they now operate under tightened budget constrains with salary cap, new NHL-euro signings are not really affected by these constrains. The European clubs have been much stronger affected.