In the 2009-10 KHL preview, published one and a half month ago, I raised the question whether the new conference system of the KHL is competitive balanced. In KHL's inaugural season, all teams had an equal and fair chance of making it to the playoffs as the rules were based on the traditional European system where the teams with most points qualify for the playoffs. In the future, geographical location may become a factor as the KHL now has adopted a NHL-inspired system.

The preview article further argued that "if there is a problem with the competitive balance of the new conference system of the KHL, it would concern the Western conference. The socalled Bobrov division which includes the most Western teams of the KHL-- Dynamo Moscow, SKA, Dynamo Minsk, Dinamo Riga, Spartak and CSKA not only appears to be the strongest, but also the most competitive balanced."

With some 160 games being played it's now possible to make a first preliminary look on the first part of the hypothesis. A lot of caution should still be made as some teams, e.g. Metallurg Magnitogorsk, have had a quite favourable schedule so far. The second part, the competitive balance of each of the four divisions, cannot be analysed thoroughly yet as the bulk of the 160 games have been of interdivisional nature.

If we look at the table, it immediately becomes clear that the Bobrov division teams indeed dominate the Western Conference. SKA St. Petersburg is off to its best start ever with 12 victories in 16 games (a win% of 75.0) and CSKA is also off its best start since the merging of the two CSKA's early in this century. The latter is especially surprising as CSKA was widely said to be the weakest link in the Bobrov division. But fact remains that CSKA under the coaching of Sergei Nemchinov has had a better start in the first quarter of the season than CSKA ever had when Vyacheslav Bykov was coaching the team.

 It's equally surprising that HC MVD leads the Tarasov division (with Atlant, Torpedo, Lokomotiv, Severstal and Vityaz). MVD and Vityaz were widely expected to be the weakest teams in the Western conference. But here we are, one quarter into the season, and MVD leads the Tarasov division. MVD thus ranks second in the Western conference even though it has fewer points or a worse goal difference than CSKA, Spartak and Dynamo Moscow.

If the KHL was based on the traditional European system, albeit with separate conferences, the Western Conference, would indeed be led by four Bobrov division teams: SKA, CSKA, Spartak and Dynamo.

And if the system from KHL's first season had been preserved with the 16 best teams qualifying for the playoffs, a fifth Bobrov team, Dynamo Minsk would have made it to the playoffs at the expense of...the current champion, Ak Bars!

The Eastern Conference is, as expected in the preview, more mixed, with three teams from each division, Kharlamov and Chernyshev taking up the first six positions. From Barys Astana at #6, there is a four point gap down to Lada at #7.

As a further indicator of the relative strength of the four divisions, one may look at how each divisions  have fared against other divisions so far. The numbers are provided in the next table

It immediately becomes clear that the Bobrov division by far is the strongest division, at least 1/4 into the season.

The six Bobrov teams have played 64 games against teams from other divisions and won about half outright. Another five game have been won in overtime or shootout, four games have been lost in OT/SO and 24 games have been lost outright. This yields a win% of 55.2%.  A further analysis shows that the Bobrov division teams especially have fared very well against the Kharlamov division teams (Metallurg Magnitogorsk, Ak Bars, Lada, Traktor, Avtomobilist and Neftekhimik) with 14 wins in 21 games, 12 of which have been won on the road.

Thus far, the Tarasov division has the lowest win percentage against other divisions, namely 46.5%. It is however far too early to conclude that Tarasov is the weakest division. A further analysis shows that the Tarasov teams have had a high win% against the Chernyshev division teams (57%) and below 50 percent win rate against  the Bobrov and the Kharlamov division teams.

Still, it is striking to note the relatively big difference in win% between the Bobrov and the Tarasov division. It indicates a competitive imbalance between the two Western divisions.

This is less the case in the Eastern Conference. So far, the Kharlamov division is on the right side of the 0.5 mark with a win% of 50.5. The Chernyshev division's win% is 46.9, and what primarily explains the difference is that the Kharlamov division teams have done particularly well against Chernyshev teams with 13 victories in 18 the games, the majority of which have been played on the road.

It should also be noted that the Kharlamov division teams have done better in aggregate than the Chernyshev division teams even though the strongest team of the Kharlamov division, Ak Bars Kazan, is off to a very sluggish start. Its very likely that the champions of Kazan will make reinforcement in the international November break. It has been rumoured that the team will find a replacement for Mikael Tellqvist--a possibility that was already mentioned in my preview article--and that Ak Bars will also look for an experienced defenseman and perhaps an extra  striker.

With all the things being said, it's still too early to make any conclusions about the strength and competitive balance of the four KHL divisions and the KHL conference system.

One of the reasons for this caution is there is yet no transitivity in the ranking of the four divisions. This may be seen from the lower table above. If there were transitivity, the Bobrov division would have a win% above 50 against all other divisions, the Kharlamov division would have a win% above 50 against the Tarasov and Chernyshev division and the Chernyshev division would have a win% above 50 against Tarasov (though the aggregate win% of the two divisions is negligable). From the table, it can immediately be seen that while Bobrov beats Tarasov and Kharlamov, its below 50 against Chernyshev. The expected pattern however holds true for the Kharlamov division and also to some extent for the Tarasov division though we would have expected its win% against the Chernyshev division to be very close to 50. There is thus only one true outlier and this is the win% pairing between Bobrov and Chernyshev.

This outlier may be straightened out as we go deeper into the season, but its also possible that the relative conclusive pattern we have seen here may break down alltogether. Stay tuned.